When I first started learning how to trade. Some of the individuals I was studying were using the term probability. Their usage of the term would be something along the lines of "What is the probability of price continuing in this direction ?"
This never made sense to me. Probability is a mathematics term and is genuinely calculated generally with numbers, objects, choice and logics. I'm no maths wiz but for me it didn't make sense.
Based on their teachings, which I studied religiously, it didn't make sense. How do I calculate the probability of price moving in a certain direction. I watched all their videos twice over, They had about 80 videos on the channel and I genuinely couldn't find an answer.
They would always speak about probability but never gave a way to measure or discern it. It seemed more like an educated guess than a mathematical product.
It seemed arbitrary and I disliked the idea of staking my future on a couple of ill-defined arbitraries. That is part of the reason I created The Fx Academy, To organize and index retail trading knowledge and perspectives in a simple, clear, accurate and objective way.
In a sense, I would watch people explain that the probability of price moving in a certain direction was high and then list of the reasons for this. No matter how hard I tried, It was never clear how they came to this conclusion.
When I was studying Trading, I took a scientific and investigative approach and viewpoint. I was looking for a field which was lucrative and had long term growth and survival potential.
I looked around at most the jobs in my area which I could get and saw that they were all shit. I knew in order to have the kind of life I wanted that I'd need to find a great opportunity which had great long-term growth prospects. I didn't have time or money to waste and wanted to get it right the first time. So I based my entire study and analysis on accuracy and objectivity.
This basically comes down to. Can I see it on the charts in some way ? Is it clear whats going to happen next ? And are the concepts accurately defined and directly applicable to what is infront of me ? I focused my philosophy on share-ability (Its ability to be picked up and easily used by others)
No matter how hard I tried to make the concept of probability fit into trading, within the metrics and guidelines I had defined It just didn't fit.
In trading you want to be cause and in every area of life you want to think less and look more, Of course in order to come to the right conclusions about what you're looking at you need the right education. I'm hoping that this website provides that for you.
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